Here’s How to Play the Market Years in Advance
Editor’s Note: Today’s Wealthy Retirement features Chief Trends Strategist Matthew Carr from our sister e-letter Profit Trends. Matthew discusses the ongoing oil and gas shortages that Contributing Analyst Jody Chudley has been pounding the table on – and the unique strategy his readers used to profit from them.
– Kyle Wehrle, Assistant Managing Editor
Right now, a lot of investors feel alone in a sea of red.
But they shouldn’t… even though the market’s recent seesawing action has been frustrating and downright frightening at times.
As I often tell my readers, my motto is “Don’t panic.”
Or, for fans of Dune (and not The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy), remember, “Fear is the mind-killer…”
There are beautiful islands of green in these rough seas.
And beyond that, in moments precisely like these – when anxiety and uncertainty are at a premium – one of my favorite long-term strategies can be turbocharged.
So pull out your wish list and get ready to shop!
Black Gold Prints Barrels of Green
All the way back in January, I laid out my case for why crude oil was in for a tremendous year.
I predicted the “black gold” would top $60 per barrel – a level not seen since the early days of 2020.
A couple of months later, in March, I upped the ante and raised my forecast to more than $75 per barrel.
Today, the price of U.S. crude topped $80 a barrel.
We haven’t seen a peak this high in crude since November 2014.
And year to date, the gooey remains of dinosaurs, prehistoric plants and other organic material have left the broader markets and the vaunted FAANG stocks eating their dust.
Crude is outperforming tech stocks by more than fivefold this year.
Take that, Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) and your devilishly bingeable Squid Game!
Of course, this is an outcome we saw unfolding.
Energy was the worst-performing sector of the market last year.
The U.S. ended the year with the fewest rigs drilling for crude since 2005. And that was all the way back before the modern shale era in oil.
Due to wells being shut in – as well as the insanely small fleet of rigs working – a situation was set up where U.S. crude would slingshot higher as demand began to normalize and the world tiptoed out from the pandemic.
And a little push from Mother Nature – in the form of winter storms and hurricanes shutting down operations again – created more of a supply crunch.
Taking a position in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLE) at the start of the year would have handed investors a nice return. It’s up more than 45% year to date.
Now, this wouldn’t be as nice as the performance of crude itself. But during the drama of 2020, a select group of readers used one of my favorite long-term strategies for beaten-down markets to score even bigger returns!
LEAPS-ing for Joy
Trying not to capsize during the short-term maelstroms of the market can be nerve-wracking.
This is particularly true when you know that a sector – or company – will most likely be hitting its stride a year or two down the road.
So moments like these are when I love to turn to a little-known investing vehicle: Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities – or LEAPS.
LEAPS are long-dated options. And they are perfect for when you know an opportunity is undervalued but a massive rebound is more than a year away.
For instance, back in December 2020, I knew that a rebound in crude was in the cards. And that was going to send shares of energy companies – which were severely beaten down at the time – soaring.
But instead of buying the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund or its largest holding – Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) – we took the LEAPS route.
Now, we didn’t do anything crazy.
We took a conservative approach. When shares of Exxon Mobil were trading for $41, I recommended the January 2022 $45 calls.
And those LEAPS are handing investors a major victory during the market’s rout!
These are up more than 300%!
That’s more than 10 times the performance of the broader market as well as six times the performance of Exxon Mobil shares.
Not to mention that the cost of owning 100 shares of Exxon through our LEAPS was $480 instead of $4,100.
This is not the time to panic or race to the sidelines to seek protection.
This is a moment when the broader markets have pulled back – when investors should be gobbling up opportunities – particularly opportunities that are underappreciated today but have enormous growth potential a year or more from now.
I’m talking airlines, cannabis, cruise lines, hotels, some electric vehicle makers, restaurants, etc.
LEAPS provide a low-cost entry into these opportunities. And there’s peace of mind, as investors can ride out the volatility, knowing that their timelines extend to 2023 or 2024.
So get your wish list out now, and think about applying this strategy immediately.
You may find that 2023 could be a sparkling new year for you and your portfolio.
Here’s to high returns,